Lessons learned from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and related topics
Meredith Conroy is an associate professor of political science and a contributor to the influential political news website, FiveThirtyEight. She also is the author of “Who Runs?: The Masculine Advantage in Candidate Emergence (The CAWP Series in Gender and American Politics),” with Sarah Oliver; “Sex and Gender in the 2016 Presidential Election (Gender Masters in U.S. Politics)," with Caroline Heldman and Alissa R. Ackerman; and “Masculinity, Media, and the American Presidency (The Evolving American Presidency).”
We asked her for her thoughts on the last two presidential elections and topics related to them.
Lessons learned from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and related topics
Meredith Conroy is an associate professor of political science and a contributor to the influential political news website, FiveThirtyEight. She also is the author of “Who Runs?: The Masculine Advantage in Candidate Emergence (The CAWP Series in Gender and American Politics),” with Sarah Oliver; “Sex and Gender in the 2016 Presidential Election (Gender Masters in U.S. Politics), with Caroline Heldman and Alissa R. Ackerman; and “Masculinity, Media, and the American Presidency (The Evolving American Presidency).”
We asked her for her thoughts on the last two presidential elections and topics related to them.
Q
What did we learn from the last two presidential election cycles?
A
There’s a lot we can say we learned from the last two presidential election cycles about elections, the power of social media, the news media, the American people, and democracy. But I’m going to focus on one thing that I think is important to realize: For the last several years, politics in American government has become “nationalized.” What that means is that the debates and discussions happening at the very top (around the presidency) have trickled down into our state and local politics, including local media coverage, and changed how American citizens think about elections, parties and politicians.
This development is worrying. In his book, “The Increasingly United States,” political scientist Dan Hopkins goes over the nationalization of our politics in great detail. But the takeaway is this: Our Constitution designed a place-based voting system. But today, local politics are only interesting to most people (and local elected officials) as they relate to national politics. This development makes it harder to hold our politicians accountable, leads to less representative legislation, and exacerbates political polarization. This nationalization of our politics, in my mind, is one of the biggest developments out of the last two election cycles and something that needs to be mitigated.
Q
It appears to many that America is politically polarized. Briefly, how did this happen, and is it possible for moderates in both parties to return politics to some sort of bipartisan middle ground – or has that ever existed at all?
A
Polarization in American politics is happening at two levels. The first level is Congress. Since about 2010, members of Congress have grown more partisan – meaning they’re more likely to vote with members of their own party and less willing to support legislation from members of the other party. But this partisanship in Congress has largely been driven by Republican members, according to studies of legislation and party voting. But while in Congress this is being driven by Republicans, that doesn’t mean Democrats won’t respond by doing the same thing.
The second level where polarization is happening is among the electorate (the public), and it’s happening in both parties. Democratic and Republican voters are increasingly voting straight-ticket (only voting for candidates from one party) and more than half of Democrats and Republicans say that they dislike and don’t trust members of the other party – something political scientists call affective polarization. This is a dangerous development and weakens our democracy.
What is causing polarization? Social media? Migration by Americans to like-minded communities? It’s hard to identify a single cause, but it’s something more academics and practitioners are trying to understand so it can be addressed.
In the meantime, people who care about democratic stability can work to make sure their friends, family and peers are thinking twice about political rumors or conspiracies they hear and are checking their sources so that they aren’t spreading misinformation or making political decisions based on bad information. It’s a small thing, but it helps lower the temperature in American politics, which is a good thing.
Q
Women in high-profile political leadership positions – such as in Congress, the vice presidency and in the Biden administration cabinet – is growing. Given your research on the role of gender in politics, do you see their number and influence accelerating, and will it be equal between Democrats and Republicans?
A
The 2020 election maintained much of the progress women have been making in American politics. Democrats largely maintained the number of women they elected to Congress in 2018 (which was a pathbreaking year), and Republicans made up lost ground and elected a record-breaking number of women in 2020, to bring women to hold more seats than ever.
Plus, the Biden Administration has also made history with the election of Vice President Kamala Harris. Also, Biden appointed more women to his cabinet than any president before him.
If you agree that women bring a unique perspective to politics, that these developments should be celebrated, not only will women in political leadership change the bills that we see considered and the priorities our government pursues, but research suggests that role model effects are clear – when younger women see women in leadership roles, they are more likely to see themselves as leaders and pursue more leadership opportunities.
Q
This last presidential election saw record numbers at the polls. What steps can, and should, voters themselves take moving forward to keep their participation levels as high, if not higher?
A
The nationalization of our politics is a double-edged sword. It brings attention to politics to increase interest broadly, but unfortunately neglects state and local issues and debates to all our detriment. Ideally, once people come to be interested in politics, they can turn to their own communities and that includes mobilizing their communities to get informed and participate in elections.
Additionally, we can collectively work to make sure our voting laws are designed to increase access to the polls. Right now, many states are passing laws that limit access to the polls – not just with voter ID laws, but also laws and rules about where our polling places are located or for how long they are open. Pay attention to how these laws affect certain communities unfairly and get involved to make sure that all groups can have a say in our democratic process.